Rishon Rishon

The family-values social conservatives - the people who most reject promiscuous sex

not true everywhere. in the USA black americans to a lesser extent latinos have higher TFR, but not because of social conservative "family values,"* but matrilineal societies where males practice a form of polygyny. the late rapper "old dirty bastard" had 13 attested children, all by different women, and (though he was a wealthy man) all benefiting from food stamps and other social services.

Traditional religions force men to choose the female strategy - in other words, family values. And this is pleasing to women.

not all religions. some, like islam, sanction polygyny, which ends up resulting in relatively low male investment, in time if not money (some wealthy muslim males have money with which they can support their wives and children, but no more time than a poor man, and children do not live by bread & water alone). many forms of african christianity have reintroduced polygyny. and if i recall correctly yemeni jews can still have multiple spouses if their marriages are solemnized outside israel.

It is ironic that in the secular world traditional religions are often seen as misogynist.

ironic especially in light of the fact that it is cross-cultural universal that men are always more likely to be free thinkers (that is, reject traditional religion). women fill the pews in latin american catholic churches, are more likely to be american fundamentalists, are two thirds of korean christians & buddhists, tend the home shrines in japan and dominated the churches of puritan new england.

* i assume here you are extolling and implying the pair-bonded monogamous ideal promoted in the west.

Thanks, Razib.

1. According to this, Black Americans have below-replacement-rate fertility of 2.0 children/woman. It looks to me like they are going down the same path, roughly, as other Americans. Hispanics are largely 1st or 2nd generation immigrants, so we have to wait a generation or two to see what will happen. However, the trends in Hispanic countries look a lot like the trends in Europe and the US - birthrates are tumbling almost everywhere. (There are a few notable exceptions.)

2. It could be that Islam is an exception. I think that the revitalization of Islam is very similar to that of other religions as a rejection of (some) Western values. However, it could be that the specific answer it offers is different in some very important ways. BTW, there hasn't been any polygamy among Yemeni Jews for at least three generations now. I don't think it was ever common. I know quite a lot of Yemeni Jews, and though I have heard stories of polygamy long ago, I've never seen it first hand.

3. I've noticed the same thing among Jews.

on your point #1, black americans as a whole might have below replacement birthrates, but college educated black women have the lowest fertility of all. this is crucial, because the 1/4 of the black population that is underclass has the highest birthrates. it is true that birth rates are dropping everywhere, but it is relative birthrates that matter. the tendency in the USA currently is this:

1) upper middle class professionals have the lowest birthrates.

2) birthrates increase the lower one goes down & up in SES starting from the upper-middle-class.

3) the lower class is much more numerous than the upper class, so you tend to see a positive correlation between poverty and fertility.

the problem is that there are mult iple trends world-wide. some religious traditionalist communities, like chasidic jews or mormons to mention extreme examples have very high birthrates, but, so do underclass groups throughout the west. or, look at the high birthrates in gaza in your neck of the woods fostered by U.N. health care.

in general i am skeptical about the world-wide revitalization of religion. i think that it depends on the country, that much of religiosity and secularization is too often defined by superficial markers, the switching between orthodoxy and atheism back to orthodoxy that many russians evinced for example indicates that many humans can easily switch between outward affiliations, though privately espousing whatever form of belief they find most congenial. also, i haven't seen concrete evidence for the reversal of the secularization of western europe, and though the american press has talked a lot of religious revival, the number of americans who claimed 'no religion' doubled in the past 15 years.

I certainly agree with you that there are multiple trends worldwide! It'll be interesting to see how things play out - I expect things to be at least as different from now in 100 years as they are from 100 years ago. Not just technologically, but also politically and sociologically. Two of those trends are the growth of "no religion" and "traditional religion". It may seem that the revitalization of religion has gotten a lot of press recently, but the attenuation of religion has been getting a lot of press for at least the last 50 years.

Getting back to my original point, it'll be interesting to see where the separation of sex and fertility will take us. This is something radically new in human history.

Getting back to my original point, it'll be interesting to see where the separation of sex and fertility will take us. This is something radically new in human history.

it is ironic that you say this: humans are one of the few mammals where females hide estrous. in other words, we do not have periods of "heat" when we engage in sexual frenzy so that females and males mate during peak fertile periods for the former. in other words, there are plenty of theories which suggest that sex was decoupled early on from reproduction for secondary roles by human females to manipulate males. many non-modern peoples did not even have an explicit idea of the connection between intercourse and pregancy.

additionally, hunter-gatherer peoples have practiced forms of birth-control from time immemorial. extended weaning and infanticide were two primary means. the hyperfecunditity of neolithic peoples might be exceptional.

humans are one of the few mammals where females hide estrous

My guess is that it encourages pair bonding.

You must agree that ancient forms of birth control and estrous hiding are nothing compared to the modern situation!

BTW, the Jewish laws of family purity strongly encourage sex at peak fertility, essentially negating estrous-hiding.

BTW, the Jewish laws of family purity strongly encourage sex at peak fertility, essentially negating estrous-hiding.

well, agricultural societies are often pro-natal, so it's not a surprise. hunter-gatherer societies are often anti-natal. and the rate of infanticide and weaning was very effective (infanticide is 100% effective if you have the will!).